marine weather discussion NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL 125 am EST Thu Nov 20 2008

Marine weather discussion for Gulf of Mexico... Caribbean Sea and southwest north Atlc S of 31n W of 55w.

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SW N Atlc... a strong cold front overtook a lingering stationary boundary earlier this evening and currently extends from 31n58w to 23n66w to Haiti. A qscat pass around 2230 z revealed 25-35 kt NW winds N of 30n between the front and about 70w...so adjusted Gale Warning based on this pass at 00z. Will likely drop warning in next package as the strongest winds appear to be pulling N of the area. Winds will steadily diminish tonight and Thu as the front weakens E of the area. Combined seas will also subside but still remain quite elevated over the next couple of days due to NW swell from the storm system near the Canadian Maritimes. Current data suggests Max seas near or over 20 ft near 31n65w. The next cold front will push off the se coast Thu night/early Fri with another round of strong winds along and W of the boundary. At this point...not anticipating gale conditions...but 20-30 kt seems likely. The front is expected to move to 31n75w to 27n80w Fri...31n67w to South Florida Fri night and then begin to weaken from 31n59w to Bahamas Sat. The tight pres gradient between the front and strong high pres over the W Atlc will cause a swath of strong NE 20-25 kt over much of the area sun thru Tue.

Caribbean and tropical N Atlc... stationary or slow moving front extends from Haiti to W Panama. Qscat pass just after 00z showed solid N 30 kt winds and even a few rain flagged 35 kt vectors. However...this data was at the edge of the swath so won't be putting up a warning based on this info. The front is forecast to weaken in place through Fri with winds and seas slowly subsiding. NE winds increase again to 20-25 kt over the W Caribbean behind the front Fri evening as the pres gradient tightens in response to another cold front approaching and strong high pres building behind it. This swath of strong winds will spread E with the synoptic pattern into the E Caribbean and trop N Atlc waters late this weekend and early next week. The highest winds and seas are likely to be in the Atlc passages.

Gulf of Mexico... high pres has settled over the N central waters with light winds and subsiding seas dominating much of the N half. N to NE 15-20 kt winds are still blowing over the S middle and E waters but even these winds should diminish to 10-15 kt Thu morning as the cold front moves farther away. Winds will only remain light for a short while...however...as the next cold front moves off the N Gulf Coast Thu night with N 20-30 kt winds expected behind it. The front quickly slides S to along 26n Fri and then shifts se Fri night as high pres builds E across the southeast states. By Mon and Tue...the high shifts NE into the Atlc allowing winds to lighten and shift se across the W waters. The next cold front will likely make its approach late Mon or Tue.

Atlantic... Gale Warning N of 30n W of cold front to 69w.

Caribbean... none.

Gulf of Mexico... .None.

Forecaster cangialosi. Tropical Prediction Center.