marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1200 am PST Thu 20 Nov 2008

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

No Quikscat data available tonight. Looking at latest sfc obs...having a hard time finding any gales ahead of the front. Buoy 46005 did have a gust to 35 kt earlier this evening but now is reporting gusts only to 17 kt. Highest gust ahead of the front as of last hour was 27 kt. Glbl models do show bl winds of 35 kt in the WA waters attm...but seem to have weaken slightly in the or waters in only showing 30 kt winds. Models also weaker with the Post frontal winds in the nrn calif waters tdy...but still do show a few 35 kt wind barbs behind the front as it moves into the area. Ltst sfc obs do show an area of gale force gusts behind the front just to the W of the nrn calif waters. Will go ahead and continue with gales in both the pz5 waters and nrn pz6 waters for tdy...with the higher confdc in the WA and nrn calif waters. Just had an ascat pass and it is showing some solid 30 kt in the WA waters but only seeing 20 to 25 kt winds in the or waters.

Glbl models continue to be in good agrmt with both the timing and strength of low pres and assoc cold front to affect the nrn waters tngt and Fri. Only change from the prev fcst may be to slow down the timing of the storm force winds in the WA waters to Fri instead of late tngt. GFS looks a bit slower in the timing than in prev runs. But GFS has remained consistent with storm force winds assoc with this system for the past three nights...and with the consensus of the glbl models in relatively good agrmt with this solution...will maintain status quo for this pacakge.

Nothing has changed with the glbl models in regards with the enhanced nly winds across the cntrl and srn calif waters later tdy and into Sat. Models still show winds below gale force during this time period and will continue to keep winds subgale in this pacakge.

For sun and Mon...glbl models continue to differ on an approaching system from the W. GFS has been consistent in developing a cut off low along the front and thus keeping the front W of the waters thru Mon. Both the ECMWF and the Gem who had a more progressive solution for this time period has trended towards the GFS and does indeed develop a cut off low. The only glbl model that continues to show a progressive system is the UKMET. Prev fcst trended towards the cut off approach that the GFS has been showing for the past few nights and will continue to trend towards that solution.

Seas...ww3 looks reasonable across the offshr waters when compared to ltst sfc obs. Will gnrly follow guidance for this pacakge.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale tdy...MDT to hi confdc. Storm Fri...MDT to hi confdc. .Cape Lookout to point St George...Gale tdy...low to MDT confdc. Gale Fri...MDT to hi confdc.

.Pz6 California waters... .Pt St George to pt Arena...gale tdy...MDT confdc. .Pt Arena to pt Conception...None. .Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.

.Forecaster achorn. Ocean forecast branch.